Assessing Threats to Locations

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Homeland Security 420 WA3

Three locations in and near New York City are assessed for vulnerabilities and threats, and then prioritized according to the security considerations and analysis. The Kuehne Chemical plant in South Kearny, New Jersey, is the only one of the three selected locations that is inherently a risk to citizens. The other two selected locations -- Carnegie Hall and the United Nations headquarters -- are vulnerable to threats and at risk primarily because they are notable Manhattan landmarks and often contain large assemblages of people.

Of the three locations, the Kuehne Chemical plant is the highest security priority due to the worst-case scenario for the site as estimated by the Department of Homeland Security, and as defined in their Risk Management Plan that was submitted to the Environmental Protection Agency. The United Nations Headquarters is the second security priority primarily because so many other opportunities to threaten and attack UN personnel exist around the globe. Carnegie Hall, a world-class, destination performance venue located just two short blocks from Central Park South in Manhattan, is the third security priority in this selection of locations.

Kuehne Chemical Plant

Twenty-one minutes, or 8.1 miles, via I-78 West from New York City is a facility known as Kuehne Chemical plant; the chemical facility (FC) is located in South Kearny, New Jersey (see Figure 1). The Department of Homeland Security has identified Kuehne Chemical plant as high risk, primarily because roughly two million pounds of chlorine gas is stored on the site.

Kuehne Chemical plant ranks as a CF that should undergo a vulnerability assessment (VA) since the total onsite inventory of chlorine gas is at or greater than threshold quantities (TQs) for a chemical covered by the Federal regulation 40 CFR 68.130. Federal regulation 40 CFR 68.130 lists Extremely Hazardous Substances (EHS) as reported to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The basis for listing chlorine gas on the EHS list is twofold: a) It was mandated for listing by Congress, and, b) it is on the EHS because it has a vapor pressure of 10 mmHg or greater. The threshold quantity for chlorine gas is 2,500 pound: the total onsite inventory of chlorine gas at Kuehne Chemical is excessively beyond what is required for a vulnerability assessment.

The Risk Management Plan (RMP) Rule is a provision of amendments to the 1990 Clean Air Act that implements Section 112 ( r ); RMPs are required to be re-submitted to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) every five years. The Risk Management Plan that submitted to the EPA by Kuehne Chemical plant defined a worst-case scenario classification for the site of the chemical facility. According to a report of the GAO in 2003, the Kuehne Chemical plant is one of 123 CFs with worst-case scenario ratings, which indicate an accident could expose over one million people ("GAO, 2003, p. 10). Officials have estimated the potential number of people who would be affected by the worst-case scenario at 12 million, and that event could occur from "the release of just one full rail car of chlorine gas" (Radford, 2010).

Parameter

Activity

Process activity

Storage tank

Covered chemicals

Chlorine gas

Quantity of covered chemicals

1 = quantity > 25x TQ

Process duration

1 = 100% continuous

Recognizability

1 = target & importance are clearly recognizable with little or no prior knowledge

Accessibility

1 = easily accessible (rail tank cars); 2 = fairly accessible (target is located outside)

Criticality rating (sum for activity)

SUM = 4 (High Criticality)

The use of a Facility Characterization Matrix (FCM) to summarize the security factors for the Kuehne Chemical plant shows the following score: [Note that this application of the FCM is for on-site chemical storage and not or any particular processing activity that uses chemicals, which is the actual intent of the FCM.]

The severity level for the Kuehne Chemical plant is S1, which is defined as follows: Potential for any of the following resulting from a chemical release, detonation, or explosion: Worker fatalities, public fatalities, extensive property damage, facility disabled for more than 1 month, major environmental impacts, or evacuation of neighbors.

Figure 1. Distance Between Kuehne Chemical Company facility and New York City

Site-specific threat types include: Terrorist outsider, criminal, extremist, insider, and vandal. The Level of Likelihood of Attack (LA) is LA3 = Threat exists, is capable, has intent or history, but has not targeted the facility.

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The third element of this level ("has not targeted the facility") is actually exists at an unknown level. The presumption would be that, given the publicity about the vulnerability of the CF and the potential for scope of destruction, that the possibility of site-specific threat is high.

Attributes of Manhattan & New York City

The following paragraph provides context for considering the vulnerability of Carnegie Hall and the United Nations headquarters. New York City proper and Manhattan are located in Counter Terrorism Zone 1 (CTZ1). Manhattan is located in New York County, which has most densely populated county in the United States. The 2013 Census estimated the population of New York County as 1,626,159 people on an area of land about 22.96 square miles, which translates into a density of 70,826 people per square mile. During weekdays, business activity brings a commuter influx that drives the total population in the area to over 3.9 million people, which results in a density of 170,000 people per square mile. Although Manhattan is the smallest of New York City's five boroughs in terms of land area, it has the third-largest population of the boroughs (just after Brooklyn and Queens). Each year, more than 50 million people are estimated to visit New York City.

United Nations Headquarters

The United Nations headquarters is located at 760 United Nations Plaza, in the Turtle Bay neighborhood of Manhattan overlooking the East River. UN headquarters is sited on a complex that borders First Avenue on the West and East 42nd Street to the south, East 48th Street on the north, and the East River to the east. Interestingly, reference is made in official and journalistic circles to "Turtle Bay" as a metonym for the United Nations as a whole or for the UN headquarters. A number of significant buildings are located in the United Nations complex, including the General Assembly building -- with a seating capacity of 1,800 -- the Dag Hammarskjold Library, the Conference and Visitors Center (see Appendix II). Two large administrative buildings referred to as DC-1 and DC-2 are located at the addresses of 1 UN Plaza and 2 UN Plaza. A line of 193 flags from the UN member states runs just inside the perimeter fence of the complex. All mail sent to UN addresses is sterilized.

Figure 2. United Nations Headquarters in Manhattan, New York City

As one would imagine, the United Nations headquarters is a magnet for contention, the occasional protest, and histrionic stands. That said, protests around the headquarters complex are considered relatively uncommon. Most of the open spaces around the complex, including Ralph Bunche Park and First Avenue itself, are too small for enormous gatherings of protestors. The New York City police department Demonstrators sometimes permits demonstrations on the Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, which is one block from the visitors' entrance, five blocks from the entrance used by the general staff, and four blocks form the entrance that top-level diplomats use. Several non-governmental, academic, and diplomatic organizations hold conferences in the headquarters throughout the year, including a UN summer study program.

Several of the buildings in the complex would be attractive targets, particularly the 39-story Secretariat Building, which stands apart with the wide eastern exposure of the building visually unencumbered. Presumably, security is tight at the UN. Regardless, site-specific threat types include: Terrorist outsider, criminal, extremist, insider, and vandal. Threat forms have primarily been demonstrations and protests at the United Nations international territory, which is technically within the United States. However, it is commonly known that threats against United Nations personnel in other countries has been deadly. The Level of Likelihood of Attack (LA) is LA1 = Threat exists, is capable, has intent or history, and has targeted the facility.

Carnegie Hall

Figure 3. Location of Carnegie Hall in Manhattan, New York

Carnegie Hall is a concert venue in Midtown Manhattan in New York City, United States, located at 881 7th Avenue, occupying the east stretch of Seventh Avenue between West 56th Street and West 57th Street, two blocks south of Central Park. Carnegie Hall is a world-class venue for the performance arts with a large seating capacity. The Carnegie Hall building as a whole has 3,671 seats, which are divided among three auditoriums: Stern Auditorium has 2,804 seats, Zankel Hall has 599 seats, and Weill Recital Hall has 268 seats.

Carnegie.....

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