Assistant to the President for Term Paper

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The Taiwan Problem:

This is by far one of the most challenging problems affecting Sino-American relations today. Indeed, the never-never land in which Taiwan exists can only be rationalized in terms of the delicate balance that exists between Taiwan, China and the United States. As you know, prior to 1972, Taiwan enjoyed official recognition by the United States to the exclusion of the People's Republic; however, following President Nixon's visit to China in 1972, all of this changed and the official U.S. position then acknowledged that Taiwan was part of China. Much like the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, there have been few signs that Taiwan or China is willing to concede so much as an inch of bargaining leverage and both sides continue to pursue militarization regimens to upgrade their armed forces, in some cases with the assistance of the United States.

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act provides some quasi-official mechanisms for ongoing U.S. relations with Taiwan, but it and the proclamation by President George W. Bush in 2001 to defend Taiwan also continue to obligate the U.S. To respond militarily to any hostile attempts by the People's Republic of China to forcibly retake Taiwan, an alternative that China has not officially ruled out. Nevertheless, increasing trade between Taiwan and China has created a new paradigm for this complex relationship that may provide the opportunity for comprises in the future. Finally, although it is unlikely that Taiwan and China will come to blows over their differences, the possibility exists nevertheless and the U.S. must be prepared to respond in some fashion that is consistent with its stated policies in this regard, which may also involve the use of military force. These dire outcomes would clearly be detrimental trilaterally, and it is reasonable to suggest that there is too much at stake for this eventuality to occur.

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Human Rights and Democratization in China:

Engagement represents the most viable alternative to help ensure further improvements in human rights policies and practices in China. The United States desperately needs the enormous market that China represents, and the relations between the two countries have become inextricably interrelated and mutually beneficial in recent years. The "Old Guard" who represented the hard-line "Long March" mentality who have held the helm of the Chinese leadership for decades are increasingly being replaced by younger leaders who subscribe to additional market reforms and who may be more willing to accede to demands on the part of the international community in conjunction with the United States to improve their human rights record simply as a cost of doing business with the West.

Moreover, a growing Chinese middle class will also be able to exert more pressure on China's government to relax laws on censorship and political activities in ways that are consistent with the democratization process. Indeed, the process of democratization has been taking place in China for a number of decades, but the process has been painfully slow and, just as with the American Revolution, in many cases violent and bloody (Hu, 2000). Nevertheless, based on current trends, it is reasonable to conclude that the Chinese people are on an inexorable march to democracy that will become even more accelerated as the Chinese middle class gains political clout and pushes for faster and broader reforms. In the final analysis, then, it is clearly in America's best interests to engage China on every level, including bilateral trade, politics, culture, military, energy (especially alternative energy research) and technology, a process that will help to contribute to the democratization of China......

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