The Banking Sector 's Ability to Weather Another Global Economic Crisis Research Proposal

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Introduction

Background

In spite of the fact that its entire effects will not be acknowledged and well-known for numerous years, the 2007 – 2008 financial crisis is already deemed as one of the major financial problems in history. There is an overall covenant that trust and confidence played significant roles in the financial crisis and are pivotal to any efficacious plan for proper recovery. Akin to all preceding financial crisis, at the source of the problem lies a loss of confidence by investors and the general public in the strength of key financial establishments and markets (Earle, 2009). The reason for this study is that confidence plays a large role in how money is invested, where it is placed, and what markets will do.  Everything from bonds to equities to precious metals and even blockchain is impacted by confidence. Banks must have some sense of their confidence levels should another economic crisis hit.  If confidence is low, knowing that can give banks an opportunity to de-leverage and reduce risk in order to better survive an economic crisis.

Statement of the Problem

There are two key points that prompted this research study. First, Senior Global Economist Joseph Lupton (2018) at J.P. Morgan pointed out that global sovereign debt has blown up by 26 percentage points of the gross domestic product (GDP) since 2007. Secondly, J. P. Morgan Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon (2017) noted that bearing in mind that quantitative easing has never been done on this magnitude and we do not entirely know the myriad effects it has had on asset prices, confidence, capital expenditures and other factors, we are unable to completely know the effects of its reversal. In this regard, the major issue facing the international banking industry, with debt levels so high and rates rising, is whether bankers are any better positioned to withstand a similar or worse crisis than that of 2007-2009.  

There is a significant need to address this problem as the Great Recession continues to be fresh in the minds of many and the likelihood of another, even more severe recession looming (Mauldin, 2018). Gaining an understanding of confidence and position of international banks can play a key role in developing a sense whether defaults in one region of the world, for instance, the United States, China or Italy, will have an influence on the banking industry as a whole (Bouvatier and Delatte, 2015) and whether there is need for taking precautions at the moment. In the preceding financial crisis of 2007 – 2009, individual banks necessitated bailouts from central banking establishments owing to the reason that they lacked preparation for failure and the failure of some could have resulted in failures across the board (Bruno and Shin, 2005). At the present moment, it is not well known whether international banks are in a better position to endure a similar or even worse financial crisis. Despite the fact that stress tests are undertaken regularly, these do not always unveil the actual magnitude to which a crisis could influence the industry.

Purpose of the Study

The purpose of this quantitative study is to assess the confidence levels of members of the international banking community with respect to the sector’s ability to weather another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009 following the collapse of sub-prime in the U.S. and the tidal wave of defaults across the global banking sector which only found relief through central banking intervention (Haitsma, Unalmis & de Haan, 2016; Heller, 2017).  The goal of the research is to better understand the extent to which the international banking sector is prepared for another possible global economic crisis. To understand the industry’s confidence, it is helpful to address the community directly and obtain from the horse’s mouth, so to speak, how vulnerable real life bankers feel in 2018, what with a trade war between the U.S. and China possibly turning into a hot war, numerous countries around the world audibly voicing their desire to begin getting away from the USD as a result of too many economic sanctions flowing out of Washington in recent years, and the Federal Reserve intent on initiating quantitative tightening.

Thus, the intent of this study is to assess the confidence of members of the international banking community with regard to whether the sector can safely handle another global economic crisis like that seen in 2007-2009 and whether geo-political awareness impacts that confidence level.

Need for the Study

The reason for this study is that confidence plays a large role in how money is invested, where it is placed, and what markets will do.  Everything from bonds to equities to precious metals and even blockchain is impacted by confidence.

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Banks must have some sense of their confidence levels should another economic crisis hit.  If confidence is low, knowing that can give banks an opportunity to de-leverage and reduce risk in order to better survive an economic crisis.

Research Questions

The research questions for this study are:  

Q1): Is the international banking sector confident that it can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009?  

Q2): Does geo-political awareness impact how confident members of the international banking community feel about whether the sector can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009?  

Q3): Does awareness of rising debt levels around the world and changes in central bank monetary policy (i.e., going from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening) impact how confident members of the international banking community feel about whether the sector can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009?

The research questions align with the research problem by focusing on the problem points raised by Lupton (2018) and Dimon (2017) with regard to rising debt levels and changing monetary policy and the question of whether banks are ready for these challenges.  The questions align with the purpose statement by focusing on the need to assess the confidence levels of bankers in the international banking community to ensure that they are prepared for what could be a coming recession that is worse than the last (Mauldin, 2018).  Based on the survey data that will be collected, the constructs of confidence, geo-political awareness and awareness of debt and QT can be measured.

Hypotheses

Null Hypotheses

The hypotheses of the study are:

H01: The international banking sector is not confident that it can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009

H02: Members of the international banking community with geo-political awareness do not feel confident that the sector can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009

H03: Members of the international banking community with awareness of rising debt levels around the world and changes in central bank monetary policy (i.e., going from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening) do not feel confident that the sector can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009.

Alternative Hypotheses

H11:  The international banking sector is confident that it can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009

H12:  Members of the international banking community with geo-political awareness do feel confident that the sector can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009.

H13: Members of the international banking community with awareness of rising debt levels around the world and changes in central bank monetary policy (i.e., going from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening) do feel confident that the sector can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009.

Definition of Key Terms

1. Quantitative Easing (QE): This is an exceptional monetary policy in which a central bank buys government securities or other kinds of securities from the market so as to diminish interest rates and increase the money supply. QE instigates a rise in money supply by saturating financial establishments with capital in an endeavor to stimulate increased lending and liquidity.

2. Confidence: The conviction that is founded on experience or proof, such as previous performance, that certain events in the future will take place as expected.

3. Global financial crisis: This is a financial crisis that impacts numerous nationals at the similar time. It is a period of severe predicaments and challenges which financial institutions, markets, corporations and consumers experience at the same time. In the course of a global financial crisis, financial establishments lose confidence and cease lending to each other and traders cease purchasing financial instruments. In the end, majority of lending ceases and business significantly suffer.

Theoretical Framework

Trust, Confidence and Regulators, Banks and the Public

The roles of trust and confidence can be associated with the three key players including the regulators, the banks, and the general public. In a free society overseen by the rights and responsibilities of its citizens, most transactions must be intentional, which, of necessity, presumes trust in the world….....

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