Campaigns and Elections Strategy Memorandum: Thesis

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House Race Choices: MS-1: Incumbent Travis Childers (D) and Greg Davis (R)

The Democrats in Mississippi recently secured a new conservative member when Travis Childers won a special House election in a district that was long held by Republicans (Lengell and Lambro). According to Rep. Gene Taylor of Mississippi, both Democrats have socially conservative positions on such issues as gun rights and abortion, and campaigned as fiscal conservatives, prompting a member of the conservative Democratic Blue Dog Caucus, to call those efforts a mistake. "Travis Childers did a great job of reminding the voters that this [race] was about who's going to represent the needs of northern Mississippi in Washington, D.C., and not the other way around," Mr. Taylor said. "This wasn't a national race. It was a local race." (quoted in Lengell and Lambro at A01).

Childers is opposed by Greg Davis, the former mayor of Southhaven. According to Davis's campaign Web site, among the prominent issues to be considered during the upcoming election are national security, lower energy costs, defense of traditional Mississippi values, and a reduction in taxation and government spending (Main issues 1).

Particular Relevant Issues. According to Lengell and Lambro (2008), "Southerners would rather vote for a 'yellow dog' than a Republican, [but] the party is having more success in recruiting politically attractive candidates who reflect the political culture of their districts" (A01). One analyst reported that, "There's a lot of talk about how Obama will stimulate a large African-American turnout and put Southern states like Mississippi in play, but he will also stimulate an extremely large white voter turnout as well. He'd need one-third of the white vote to win any of those states, and I do not see him achieving that level of support among white Southerners" (quoted in Lengell and Lambro at A01). Likewise, Mitchell emphasizes that, "Racial attitudes have changed dramatically in Mississippi and the South in the decades since race was always the No.

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1 issue. But perhaps it's not down far enough on the list that people will feel comfortable voting for an African-American candidate" (3).

Finally, Persily points out that the delays encountered during the recent Mississippi congressional redistricting plan resulted in charges that partisan concerns had come to steer the granting or withholding of pre-clearance in a few high-profile cases. In fact, the Voting Section stalled the redistricting process in Mississippi for so long that a pro-Republican redistricting plan went into effect by default (Persily). There are also some general trends discernible in the state based on recent election results. The Republican Party has continued to gain strength in Mississippi in recent years, with former Republican National Committee (RNC) chairman Haley Barbour becoming just the second Republican governor of Mississippi in more than 130 years (Hickey, 2003).

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