Causal Connections Chapter

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Oil Hinder Democracy?

The problem entails whether oil has a detrimental effect on democracy. Specifically, the author investigates whether a country that is rich in oil tends to be "poor" democracy. As reason for this inquiry, the author notes a number of examples of countries that are rich in oil but not in democracy. Oil exporters like Nigeria, Indonesia, Venzeula, and states in Central Asia are mentioned as particular examples of countries that are rich in oil resources but that have nonetheless not become democratic.

The author identifies three areas to position the main research question, which is whether oil impedes democracy. The first aspect regards the validity of the claim and asks "is it true?" As part of this question, the author asks whether the negative influence of oil on democracy is consistent even once certain variables are taken into account. The second question regards the generality of the claim along the geographic and the sectoral dimensions. Specifically, the question regards whether all oil-rich countries have a poor democracy record, and whether other minerals than oil have the same effect in these countries.

3.

The author notes that most literature of the past has focused on the Middle East and North Africa when investigating the inverse effects of oil and democracy on each other. While he does not outright deny the validity of the claims being investigated, he notes that more investigation is necessary before the literature and its claims can be taken at face value.

4.

The author appears to lean towards the hypothesis that oil indeed does have an adverse effect on democracy.

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To prove this, he investigates three potential causal mechanisms, including the rentier effect, the repression effect, and the modernization effect. The author appears of the intention to use these effects as an explanation of the apparent link between rich oil exports and authoritarian rule in the states in question.

5.

In order to investigate the hypothesis, the author has created a numerical model in order to determine the various effects of five causal variables that have been robust determinants of democracy in previous studies. Variables that determine the oil and mineral wealth of states are also included in the equation.

6.

Data include a pooled time-series cross-national data set. Data from all sovereign states that have a population of more than one hundred thousand persons between 1971 and 1997 were collected. To fit into the model equation being used, the data were numerical.

7.

The first, and most important, main finding is that the author proves the hypothesis that oil hurts democracy. After applying the model and investigating the data, the author finds that the data prove both valid and statistically robust in terms of the claim. It is also found that the damage created by oil is greater in poor countries than in rich ones in terms of hurting the democracy. The second main finding is that the harm created by oil is not only apparent in the Middle East; all countries with rich oil resources suffer in terms of democracy. Third, the authors have found that not only….....

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