Cuevas-Cubria & Beaini (2010) Discuss Annotated Bibliography

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The line graph suggested a linear relationship between the price of oil and political events. The increases in the price of oil were linked to negative political events. Negative political events are events that threatened the political stability of regions or of specific countries. When these events occurred there was a tendency for the price of oil to increase along with the conflict or instability. Additionally, there was a decline in the price of oil when there was a fall in the economies of countries. A reduction in the demand for consumer goods would reduce the demand for oil and oil-based products. When there was worldwide negative phenomenon such as a recession, this would also reduce the demand for oil and consequently the price.

The relationship between these variables while not measured in the study was clearly described. Based on the description it would be reasonable to conclude that there should be a negative relationship between oil supply and the price of oil. A negative relationship would mean that as the supply of oil increased the price would decrease. This increase in one variable, while the other decreases adequately describes a negative correlation. This is offset with the positive relationship between demand and the price of oil. As the demand for the product increases across the globe the price of the product increases. Throughout the article the authors demonstrate these correlations and infer the relationship between them without providing a correlation coefficient. The final element of the study that will be discussed is that of the hypothesis.

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A hypothesis is a statement of the relationship between the two or more variables. This statement is usually tested statistically to show whether the hypothesis should be accepted or not accepted. There are two hypotheses the null and the alternate. The null hypothesis suggests that there is no relationship between the variables, or no difference between groups. The alternative is the opposite of the null and is generally the hypothesis that the researcher wants to prove or support.

In this study there was an implicit hypothesis suggesting that there would be no significant increase in the production of oil between the years 2009 and 2010. The use of the term significant suggests that any increase must be demonstrably higher than chance. In most research this risk is placed at 5%. The level of significance is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis if the hypothesis is true. An example of this is the determination that oil production in Nigeria increased significantly. This significant increase means that the events discussed in the article such as the improvements to the pipeline system and the political stability are statistically linked to the increase in oil production.

The article suggested many of the statistical principles as it described the changes in oil price globally. The relationships suggested in the article demand further explication through research. The line graphs clearly showed how the fluctuations in….....

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