Hezbollah Threat Analysis Research Paper

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Overall Threat Assessment

Literally “the party of God,” Hezbollah has transformed itself from a marginalized radical “clandestine militia” to a “mainstream political party,” (Harik 1). Hezbollah has cells on all inhabited continents, with a particularly sinister presence in Latin America (Byman; Noriega and Cárdenas). Before September 11, Hezbollah was responsible for “more American deaths than any other terrorist organization,” (Byman 54). Its global reach and history of attacks are not the only reason why Hezbollah presents the highest possible threat to the United States. Hezbollah has become a legitimate “state within a state,” funded not only by its native Lebanon but with “significant support from Iran and Syria,” (Masters and Laub 1). Hezbollah has also managed to legitimize itself, developing not only a “moderate” facade (Harik 1), but a political party with “extensive security apparatus, political organization, and social services network,” that appeals to a large number of Shia in Lebanon (Masters and Laub 1). With Iran’s continual financial and military support, Hezbollah has effectively infiltrated the Lebanese government, leading to the recent resignation of the nation’s prime minister and potentially dragging the proxy wars between Iran and Saudi Arabia into full force. Therefore, the overall threat assessment posed by Hezbollah is high—a higher threat perhaps than any other non-state actor in the world.

History

The official Hezbollah founding manifesto is dated 1985. Lebanon had been embroiled in a long civil war that began in 1975, a legacy of a hastily and poorly drawn post-colonial border. Sectarian violence seemed inevitable as Lebanon comprised three distinct cultural and religious groups: the majority Maronite Christians, the Sunni, and an “impoverished and underdeveloped” Shia community scattered throughout southern Lebanon and the northern Beqaa valley (Norton 12). When Lebanon first gained independence from France, these three groups tried to share power equally in Beiruit’s government but failed, leading to a devastating civil war that lasted from 1975 to 1990 and claimed 150,000 lives at least (Norton 12). Contributing to domestic unrest in Lebanon was the ongoing influx of Palestinians, and the eventual formation of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), which would “challenge the authority of the Beirut government” and establish the “state within a state” model that would eventually be picked up by Hezbollah (Norton 14). As many of the Palestinian refugees poured into Shia areas in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah and the PLO started to pool resources.

Politically, economically, and social disenfranchised, the Shia community in Lebanon started to wield increasingly greater amounts of power in the region. A higher birth rate versus their Sunni and Christian counterparts in the country also helped the Shia in Lebanon gain traction. To secure its own borders and fight against the PLO, Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982. The invasion “galvanized a faction of disenfranchised Shiites to take up arms in support of an Iranian-style clerical regime,” kick-starting the birth of Hezbollah (Masters and Laub 1). Iran, which had been undergoing its own revolution, recognized the opportunity to gain traction in the region and establish itself as an enemy of both the United States and the Soviet Union. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards started to train Shiite militias in the Bekaa Valley, creating the precursor to Hezbollah, Islamic Amal. Islamic Amal fought against the South Lebanon Army and Israel for years before being reborn in 1985 with the name Hezbollah, “party of God.”

Thus, Hezbollah was therefore born, and remains, a group of Shiites who officially pledge allegiance to Iran and which is also officially dedicated to the obliteration of the state of Israel. The Hezbollah manifesto reads: “the Zionist entity is aggressive from its inception.

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..our struggle will end only when this entity is obliterated. We recognize no treaty with it, no cease-fire, and no peace agreements, whether separate or consolidated,” (Masters and Laub 1). The charter of Hezbollah also mentions the United States and the Soviet Union as enemies of Islam. Besides becoming embroiled in the Lebanese civil war and launching attacks against Israel, one of Hezbollah’s first moves was actually against the United States. In 1983, prior even to its charter, Hezbollah with the help of Iran launched suicide attacks on the United States embassy and Marine Corps barracks in Beirut, killing 258 Americans (Masters and Laub 1).

When the civil war in Lebanon ended in 1989, the Taif Accord required Hezbollah to rebrand and reposition itself. Hezbollah remained committed to its anti-Israel and pro-Iran platform. The group also maintained power in Lebanon by proclaiming itself the protector of the Shia people, and by claiming “deep faith and a literal interpretation of God’s words,” (Harik 1). In 1990, Syria established a military peacekeeping presence in Lebanon but Hezbollah continued a “guerilla war” in the south of the country to prove its ongoing commitment to extricating the state of Israel from the region (“Profile: Lebanon's Hezbollah movement” 1). In addition to its diplomatic ties with Iran, its social and economic strategies in empowering the Shia communities in Lebanon, and its creative military strategies, Hezbollah also began to play a more active role in Lebanese national politics. The party has had candidates in national elections since 1992. Hezbollah claimed credit for ousting Israeli forces from Lebanon in 2000, a deft marketing strategy that enabled Hezbollah to gain a political stronghold in Beirut.

The next important phase in Hezbollah’s history was during the 2006 war with Israel, which began when Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others. Lasting for more than a month, the war caused over a thousand civilian deaths, which only fed into Hezbollah’s anti-Israel rhetoric. As a result, “Hezbollah survived the war and emerged emboldened,” (“Profile: Lebanon's Hezbollah movement” 1). Hezbollah had in fact become so powerful that by 2008, when the government of Lebanon tried to dismantle Hezbollah’s communication networks, the group responded by seizing the capital. The clash resulted in 81 deaths. More importantly, Hezbollah won the skirmish, securing a new political agreement that effectively gave the party the power to veto any cabinet decision (“Profile: Lebanon's Hezbollah movement” 1). Since 2008, Hezbollah has gained more seats in Parliament, causing the most recent political kerfuffle in November 2017.

Furthermore, Hezbollah involved itself fully in the Syrian civil war. In support of Iran and President Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah sent thousands of militants to Syria. Both Syria and Lebanon have therefore become primary battlegrounds in the ongoing proxy wars between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which supports Sunni groups throughout the Middle East. By 2016, Saudi Arabia and the Arab League had declared Hezbollah a terrorist group (“Profile: Lebanon's Hezbollah movement” 1). Clashes between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Saudi-backed Sunni groups in Lebanon have severely destabilized the region with no apparent resolution in sight.

Membership/Leadership

Since 1992, the General Secretary of Hezbollah has been Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah has been part of Hezbollah since before the charter, having had strong ties with what is known as Hezbollah’s ideological predecessor, al-Dawa al-Islamiya (The Islamic Call), which “followed the teachings of prominent….....

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