Kmt's Candidate (and Current Mayor Hypothesis

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the PRC and Taiwan have significantly increased economic and cultural ties as both nations' economies have experienced tremendous growth. Taiwan would lose economically if they were to militate against the PRC. This they would not be ready to do.

3. Least likely to occur: [enter here and use a "Term of Estimative Probability" (see below) to describe it ]

Unlikely 16-34% chance:

US representatives warned both presidential candidates that under the current circumstances, the U.S. could not guarantee political or let alone military support should a confrontation with the PRC occur. Said one high ranking U.S. official "should Shu claim independence, there is no way the U.S. President will send U.S. forces near Taiwan."

Despite a series of efforts by several members of Congress to oppose the measure, in October 1971 the United Nations adopted Resolution 2758 calling for the PRC to be recognized as the legitimate government of China. In February of 1972, the U.S. And PRC released the Shanghai Communique calling for both countries to work together in order to normalize relations. In the communique, the U.S. agreed to support the "One-China Policy" acknowledging there is only one China (although not necessarily the PRC).

(a) Provide insight as to how you arrived at your conclusion.

In 1978, President Jimmy Carter announced the U.S. was normalizing relations with the PRC and would sever formal relations with Taiwan.

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In response to President Carter's action, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act calling for the U.S. To consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means (including boycotts and embargoes) as a threat to the peace and security of the Pacific and of grave concern to the U.S. And made formal provisions for providing Taiwan with weapons "of a defensive nature."

(b) Sum up the findings from the matrix and explain how they support your conclusion this is the most likely hypothesis.

Evidence 1-3 showing the crisis will be resolved with limited intervention.

The U.S. affirmed support for the PRC. This contradicts the statement that they will withdraw their support for no apparent strong enough reason.

(c) Explain how you used disconfirming evidence to conclude this was a less likely hypothesis.

The other hypotheses give no compelling evidence that he U.S. will withdraw on its two prior resolutions to protect the PRC.

4. Briefly assess if you have followed all the below "Analytical Standards" as you made your assessment here.

I practiced: Objectivity (the anlaysis was free of emotional content); Independence of Political Considerations. The conclusions were based on All Available.....

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