NPV New Computer Research Paper

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Marketing

The following are estimates using the NPV calculator:

Expected Commercial Value (NPV)

$11,099,275

Probability of Commercial Success

Probability of Technical Success

Discount Rate

Cashflows

FY13

FY

Development Costs

$2,000,000

$1,000,000

Launch and Marketing Costs

$1,200,000

Forecasted Units Sold

$5,200

Forecasted Revenue (Unit Sales Price x Units Sold )

$2,080,000

Discounted Cashflows (10-Year)

Calculated

NPV Income

$22,200,816

NPV Development Costs

$3,720,341

NPV Launch and Marketing Costs

$2,941,037

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

$400,000

$200,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$800,000

$300,000

$300,000

$300,000

$150,000

$9,000

$11,000

$10,000

$8,600

$7,400

$3,600,000

$4,400,000

$4,000,000

$3,440,000

$2,960,000

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

$100,000

$50,000

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$100,000

$6,600

$5,800

$5,200

$4,800

$2,640,000

$2,320,000

$2,080,000

$1,920,000

1b.

The probability commercial success was an assumed input, a constant. It was 0.8. This figure went into the Expected Commercial Value calculation, which was the NPV multiplied by the probability of technical success and the probability of commercial success. The NPV and ECV calculations do not have the power to derive a new probability of commercial success.

The NPV, including the probability of commercial success, is $11.099 million. If the current assumptions about costs and profits hold, then this product will be successful. The current projections are for sales going out ten years that will deliver an NPV of $22.2 million, versus development costs and marketing costs of around $6.6 million.

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Even if the project has a probability of commercial success of 40%, it will still have a positive NPV, which indicates that the project should be greenlighted. If we have to cut the price, it will still be profitable, even with a price as low as $155.

We should also calculate the sensitivity to the discount rate, since a 6% discount rate is fairly optimistic. However, with these projections even a 30% discount rate delivers a positive NPV. This is because most of the cash flows are in the first couple of years, which reflects the normal life cycle of a new computer, as they tend to sell best when they are fresh, new technology.

2.

The first element of branding is that within the PC business, it is the manufacturer's branding that matters. This is because the product life cycle is relatively short, so product families within a given brand may only last a handful of years. Plus, the manufacturer will typically have a consistent brand image across its entire product line. An example of how this works is Asus. Asus makes a range of electronic devices, each featuring product brands. So while people who are avid consumers of a specific product will recognize a brand like EeeTop, for the most part people.....

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