Numerical Modeling Multiple Chapters

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Tsunami Numerical Modeling

Tsunami Modeling

Tsunamis, along with other massive natural disaster events such as earthquakes, hurricanes and so forth, represent one of the most (if not the most) destructive natural disaster event that has occurred in the past or that could occur in the future. They typically coincide with earthquakes in a given area but accurately predicting and projecting when they will occur, when they will not occur and the methods of predicting both has become a fairly chaotic and fickle endeavor. However, the use of computer and numerical-based modeling has represented a shift in that it can more accurately predict what will or will not occur when earthquakes and other conditions relative to tsunamis occur and avail themselves to geologists, oceanic experts and other scientists that are the least bit involved in predicting tsunamis and warning the populace around the world about the same. After explaining the data sources and methods, this repot will cover how to predict and account for damage scenarios, the areas of the world that tsunamis typically occur in, what happens when tsunamis make landfall, what patterns have become clear over time, what areas are more vulnerable than others, and particular tsunami events in the past, mostly in the 1950's, that have illuminated the subject quite effectively.

Materials & Methods

The materials and methods to be used for this brief literature review, methodology and results/discussion treatise are fairly basic. Of course, the main topic at hand is tsunami and the "drill down" on the subject has been and will be on how numerical models can be used to explain why things happened a certain way in the past and how that data can be used to predict similar events or close calls in the future. The materials used include ten different professional or peer-reviewed journals that relate specifically to modelling of tsunami prediction and handling, historical analysis, future predictions or a combination of the three. After assessing the ten sources, there will be a synthesis of what was reviewed and the relevant points that can or perhaps should be captured from the material.

Results

Overview

Perhaps the best way to learn future lessons is to look exhaustingly and complete at prior events and happenstances to see what can or should be learned.

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There was a nasty tsunami in 1956 that affected the area of Greece. One of the ten articles reviewed for this literature review and results summary reflect that the disaster was recorded and assessed from nearby Yafo, Israel. This was far from the first such event in that area as there were 300 descriptions of tsunamis or at least something very similar over the decades and centuries. Of course, scientific standards and measurement methods were paltry or were not even attempted back in the 1950's and before. However, this does not mean that something cannot or should not be learned from those experiences. Frustratingly, most of the accounts that were ever offered were based on simple eye-witness accounts and little to anything else. Even so, the fishing buoy gauges that existed at the time reflected that Yafo and nearby Greece got creamed by a tsunami in 1956. The tsunami started at 0900 hours local time in Israel and lasted about twelve to fifteen minutes (Beisel et al., 2008). The Greek account of the same event yielded similar results. The tsunami was ostensibly the result of an earthquake and caused swells of thirty, twenty and ten meters in height. Updating modeling since then has relocated the epicenter and genesis of the earthquake that led to the tsunami and has led to a modeling crafted after the fact even though the event was more than half a century ago and before modern scientific methods were or could be employed (Okal et al., 2009).

Tsunami modeling of any sort, numerical or otherwise, is not remotely an exact science yet but the hotspots and the amount of warning time involved is fairly clear. One such hotspot can be found in the eastern Corinth Gulf along the Perachora Fault in the area of Greece, the same area just mentioned in the prior paragraph (Tselentis et al., 2006). Further, the "hotspots" in question have been so for many centuries or even multiple millennia. For example, it is commonly held that the Greece area has been a hotbed of….....

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