Political Risk Models the Recent Research Paper

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N.D. PP. 1). Yet with the recent wave of anti-American protests can these statements be integrated into a compelling narrative for long-term investment? Specifically, the answer is derived from qualifying the political risk variables associated with respective nation-states.

Risk Variables

While a plethora of political risk models exist, there are definitive items which comprise their ability to predict relative political turbulence. These factors include:

The threat of war, social unrest, disorderly transfers of power, political violence, international disputes, regime changes, institutional ineffectiveness, quality of the bureaucracy, the transparency and fairness of the political system, and levels of corruption and crime. (Economist Intelligence Unit. N.D. PP. 1)

Returning to the Middle East and the unrest of the last 24 months, nation-states in the region have experienced these factors to some degree and have developed scenarios to provide some measure of political certainty.

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Yet the issue remains whether the dynamism of the Arab Nations uprising will allow for long-term investment in the region, particularly regarding regime change and stability of transitional governments. Succinctly, "the current and recent pictures of riots in Egypt, Morocco, and perhaps other parts of the Arab world, question the sustainability of the rule of law in those countries in time of transitional regimes" (Chalamish, E.N.D. PP. 1).

A Quantifiable Approach?

An argument can be made that the political risk variables described are in actuality events that occur, rather than fundamental attributes in quantifying foreseeable risk scenarios. In approaching political risk from this vantage point the focus must be on causal….....

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