Population Statistics Essay

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Body Mass Index (BMI) is thought to be an indicator of overall health. Quite frequently, health researchers choose to include the measure as a possible predictor of specific outcomes of interest, such as death or incidence of a particular disease. Studies that have established an association between BMI and the incidence of cardio-vascular disease, for example, are quite common in the current literature; however, such studies do not always account for other possible contributors to cardio-vascular disease, such as smoking or other latent disease. In the study, Body-Mass Index and Mortality among 1.46 Million White Adults, researchers were interested in determining the existence of an optimal BMI level. The investigators pooled 19 prospective trials, which were initially designed to specifically address cancer related inquiries, in order to arrive at a better understanding of the association of all-cause mortality and BMI. In specific, the researchers' primary interest was, "to assess the optimal BMI range and to provide stable estimates of the risks associated with being overweight, obese, and morbidly obese (BMI ?40.0), with minimal confounding due to smoking or prevalent disease" (de Gonzalez, A.B.

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, Hartge, P., Cerhan, J.R., et al., 2010, p. 2212).

In general, prospective studies are those designed to observe a predefined population over time. In a prospective analysis, a particular outcome of interest, say death or the development of disease, is documented, and exposure or non-exposure to certain risk factors are ascertained as they occur during the course of a study (Gordis, L., 2004, p.152). Because the study design was "time-to-event" in nature and the variable "time" was itself a variable of interest, the authors of this study applied the use of a statistical model that belongs to the survival analysis branch of statistics called the proportional hazards model. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios, which, in layman's terms, can be understood as a ratio of the probability of the event occurring in the exposed group vs. A non-exposed group.

The results of the study found that the rate of death from any cause was generally lowest among subjects with….....

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