Problems Case Essay

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Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain

Question (a) moving average demand predictions

The predictions in each quarter based on moving average calculations are as follows:

Y2Q1 = 1/N (y1q1 + y1q2 + y1q3 + y1q4)

where Y2Q1 represents forecasts for year 2 quarter 1 and y1q1 .. ynqn are actual demands for year n quarter n and N. represents the number of quarters used to calculate the average.

This nomenclature is used throughout the calculation where YnQn represents Year n Quarter n.

Y2Q1 = 1/4(18+19+18+17) = 18 kayak paddles

Y2Q2 = 1/4(19+18+17+18) = 18.25

Y2Q3 = 1/4(18+17+19+21) = 18.75

Y2Q4 = 1/4(17+19+21+18) = 18.75

Y3Q1 = 1/4(19+21+18+19) = 19.25

Y3Q2 = 1/4 (21+18+ 19+20) = 19.5

Y3Q3 = 1/4 (18+19+20+24) = 20.25

Y3Q4 = 1/4(19+20+24+28) = 22.75

Year

Y4Q1 = 1/4 (20+24+28+32) = 26

Y4Q2 = 1/4 (24+28+32+30) = 28.5

Y4Q3 = 1/4 (28+32+30+31) = 30.25

Y4Q4 = 1/4 (32+30+31+34) = 24.25

Year

Y5Q1 = 1/4 (30+31+34+40) = 33.75

Y5Q2 = 1/4 (31+34+40+42) = 36.75

Y5Q3 = 1/4 (34+40+42+38) = 38.5

Y5Q4 = 1/4 (40+42+38+59) = 44.

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75

Year 6

Y6Q1 = 1/4 (42+38+59+58) = 49.25

Y6Q2 = 1/4 (38+59+58+60) = 53.75

Y6Q3 = 1/4 (59+58+60+61) = 59.5

Y6Q4 = 1/4 (58+60+61+62) = 60.25

Managing Operations 2

Year 7

Y7Q1 = 1/4 (60+61+62+62) = 61.25

Y7Q2 = 1/4 (61+62+62+64) = 62.25

Y7Q3 = 1/4 (62+62+64+65) = 63.25

Y7Q4 = 1/4 (62+64+65+66) = 64.25

Year 8

Y8Q1 = 1/4(64+65+66+68) = 65.75

Y8Q2 = 1/4(65+66+68+69) = 67

Y8Q3 = 1/4(66+68+69+68) = 67.75

Y8Q4 = 1/4 (68+69+68+67) = 68

Question (b) exponential smoothing demand predictions

FQ2 = FQ1 + ? (dq1 -- FQ1)

Where FQ2 = forecast demand in quarter 2, ? is the smoothing coefficient, (dq1 - FQ1) is the forecasting error, FQ1 is the forecast demand for the previous period and dq1 is the actual demand for the corresponding period.

Year1 (Y1)

F (Y1Q2) = 17+0.1(18-17) = 17.1 given initial forecast of year 1 quarter 1 of 17

F (Y1Q3) = 17.1+ 0.1(19-17.1) = 17.29

F (Y1Q4) = 17.29+0.1(18-17.29) =.....

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