Realism and the End of Seminar Paper

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S.S.R. stands the fact that civil strife is less dangerous if it takes place on the losing side that it is on the winning side (p99).

Realists and Their Critics

Predictive failure: realism through structural realism failed to predict the fall of the U.S.S.R. And instead foresaw stability in the bipolar system. However, no theory considered the idea of the way in which the Cold War would end. Even so, theorists did not have a clear understanding of the actual capabilities of the two actors because these capabilities contain non-material aspects as well.

Correlation between "power" and "change": it is difficult to make because a clear focus must be placed on the need of the U.S.S.R. To revitalize its economy in order to maintain its power in the 1980s that may have brought about the change. Further, this correlation is based on the internal and international factors such as the increase in numbers of the civil society or the industrialization of the West. The need for reform however was caused by the "the system-wide decline in socialism's economic performance" and "and the Soviet Union's awful geopolitical position, with every other major power in the entire world, in every region, allied or aligned against Moscow" (p110). The changes that were made by Gorbachev were eventually induced to him by the overall negative perception on the U.S.S.R. And on socialism.

Anomalies of the end of the Cold War

There are three anomalies considered for the end of the Cold War: "the Soviet Union's decision to withdraw from East-Central Europe, the highly cooperative behavior of the other great powers; and the absence of great-power war" (p115).

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These can be explained however by the fact that unlike perceptions, the reality of the actual capabilities of the U.S.S.R. was different from the official image. It was mandatory to withdraw from the East because they did not have the capabilities to intervene to protect socialism and the doctrine already proved weak in states such as Poland or Germany. The conciliatory behavior of the West in regard to the U.S.S.R. was justified through the fact that the U.S. In particular realized that the power shift is for the West and the politics in Russia would somewhat accept this. Finally, the absence of a great power war is explained by the fact that the U.S.S.R. decided to adjust to change through reform and retrenchment rather than through war.

Conclusion

The realist theory did not fail to explain the fall of the Soviet Union and all its elements. No theory would have been able to do so particularly because of the complex nature of the phenomenon. The case study is important for future research because it provides a framework of analysis of other complex events. The lessons learned from this study are related to the need to have a causal analysis of events and to include more theoretical aspects from different approaches, in order to provide a more complex analysis of the international relations......

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