Socio-Economic Changes in the Institution Reaction Paper

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Seltzer, writing in 2000, suggests that trends favoring cohabitation have shown a strikingly sharp incline upward, going from 30% of women aged 19 to 23 in the 1980s, to nearly 40% in 1994. However, another cultural pattern is manifest, writes Seltzer, one which views cohabitation not merely as a transitional period, but as an actual phase in which it is acceptable to raise children. The percentage of unmarried parents increased to nearly 1/3 rd in 1997, up from merely 18% in 1980 and the number of cohabitating couples giving birth rose nearly 25% from 1980 to the 1990s (Seltzer 2000: 1251).

These trends, of course, have been viewed with alarm by many conservatives. But contrary to the perception that out-of-wedlock births inevitably lead to less stable unions, evidence suggests that once again, this is largely culturally and contextually-dependent. In Seltzer's study, Great Britain and in the U.S., cohabitation was linked to a less stable marriage, while in France it was not (Seltzer 2000: 1251). Her research supports the notion that cohabitation in and of itself does not lead to marital instability, but rather it depends upon the demographic profile of the couple. Couples within more socially-conservative nations may be more inclined to have liberal views of marriage. Their less conventional relationships are not supported institutionally or by their families, thus leading to greater instability. In France, such behaviors are expected. Cohabitating couples make up much wider demographic and may likely embrace positive attitudes towards marriage, even though they have not yet committed to the practice.

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The implication, according to Seltzer, that if approving cultural trends continue to rise in favor of cohabitation, then divorce rates of cohabitating couples will begin to level out in all nations.

However, this is not supported by Kieman's data, which found the chance that a cohabitating couple would split in France vs. The United States or England was relatively negligible. It was much higher in socially liberal countries like Sweden, Germany, Norway, and Austria. And in all nations, in both studies children born to non-cohabitating were less likely to see their parents separate (Kieman 2004: 81). Furthermore, some attitudes hold fast -- cohabitating couples are more likely to marry if they want children than if they do not (Seltzer 2000: 1251). Both researchers believe that particularly with couples that desire children, conventional marital institutions are likely to prevail, and while non-marital couplings may be on the rise, these alternatives are unlikely to replace the institution of marriage.

The studies did not focus upon other demographic factors that might impact marriage or how marriage is perceived. Class, for example, is an important consideration -- does a cohabitating couple that is less affluent have a greater chance of splitting up in all nations than an upper-class couple? Does society perceive cohabitating couples differently, based upon race and class? More research still needs to be done to paint a complete picture of what these demographic trends may mean in the future......

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