Statistical Analysis Proposal of Homicides in Chicago Research Proposal

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Chicago Crime Policy and Murder Rates

Chicago Homicide Rates

Chicago garnered the distinction of being the murder capital of America in 2012, with 506 of its citizens meeting a violent end (Connor, 2013). The murder rate for January 2013 seemed to predict another record year, but March figures brought a moment of respite for the beleaguered city. From a historical perspective however, the 2012 murder rate in Chicago was not too far from the 25-year low reached in 2004 (UCR, 2010).

Simply quoting a murder rate can therefore be misleading. To determine whether the 2012 Chicago murder 'spree' represents an out-of-control situation demanding strong interventions that would likely threaten civil liberties or a minor year-to-year variation, the historical murder statistics for Chicago and other cities will be analyzed in detail.

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First, the historical data from several similarly sized U.S. cities will be compared using the data provided by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) through their Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics (UCR, 2010), thereby determining whether Chicago represents an anomaly or is simply being influenced by national social and economic trends. The same approach will be used to compare the statistics contained in the annual murder reports published by the Chicago Police Department through their Chicago Alternative Policing Strategy (CAPS) division.

The Chicago homicide statistics available from the DOJ (UCR, 2010) and the Chicago Police Department (2012) differ to some extent. The DOJ statistics are yearly totals and per capita rates for the period 1985 to 2010, while the CAPS reports provide significantly.....

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