Wesley Mitchell: The Intellectual Founder Term Paper

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Cycles were defined around short-term and long-term periods of expansion and contraction, within seasonal, three, and decade-long periods, although Mitchell denied the existence of long cycles lasting more than 48-60 years in duration. ("Cycles: Some empirical issues," 2006, New School of Social Research) His greatest legacy has been that of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which continues to compile objective, quantitative data on the business cycle of the kind Mitchell thought was key to planning to meet recessions and curtail inflation head-on. Planning, prediction, and carefully guarding against unexpected events were key to surviving in an economy.

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One question that arises about the business cycle is whether the theory creates the cycle. In other words, if people are expecting a recession, or a downturn in the seasonal business cycle, do they create the recession by refusing to spend money, contracting economic production, and thus causing a downturn in unemployment? One argument against this that Mitchell would point to is that downturns occurred in the business cycle even before people believed they exist.

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However, the existence of organizations such as the National Bureau of Economic Research, which market analysts and businesspeople consult to know whether they should buy or sell stock, increase or decrease production, might make shifts in the business cycle appreciably more catastrophic, as the belief helps generate the cycle. In short, although Mitchell did not discover business cycle, and although the data compiled by the organization he founded may be helpful, it may also exacerbate some of the tendencies he hoped to guard against, through prediction and planning.

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