Why the Banks Issue Credit Essay

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Predicting the Future Interest Rate

It is likely not possible to forecast the interest rate accurately, as the Federal Reserve has been keeping it new zero for several years now and more recently has been promising rate hikes yet holding press conferences in which the tone is far more dovish than hawkish. Thus, from expectations of four rate hikes a year totaling a 100 basis point rise, expectations are reduced to one, perhaps two, rate hikes, as the "data-dependent" Fed sees bad jobs reports, a stagnating global economy, and other factors putting pressure on the decision to normalize rates (Durden, 2016).

Once rates do hike, however, there is likely to be a sharp correction in the stock market as investors seek less risky investments (even a mere 25 basis point raise is enough to cause investors to flee the market for safer havens, as the previous rate hike showed) (Phoenix Capital, 2016). The rebounding of the market (considering volume) has the appearance more of a short squeeze than the return of confidence, and with the Fed bouncing between hawkishness and dovishness, one cannot know which way rates will go in the foreseeable future. They could even possibly go negative as they have in Europe and Japan (Durden, 2015).

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Q2: Subject: Factors Affecting Deposits

The main factors affecting deposits are interest rates (too late interest rates compels investors to seek riskier asset classes, such as buying stocks at all-time high prices) or safer asset classes like gold; thus, bank deposits dry up. Or another factor can be the state of the economy, which takes money out of the hands of the middle class individual with a bank account; his income dwindles as a result of recession-like symptoms on a global scale; he does not have as much to save, and deposits dry up.

Q3: Subject:The Role of Liquidity

Without liquidity, there is no market. The problem is especially felt when one owns a significant stake of a certain portion of an asset and wants to sell -- but there are no buyers. This is a liquidity problem. In order to sell, the market will undercut him (because there is no demand) and he will likely lose on his investment. When liquidity dries up, it means there are few buyers and sellers: investors are staying away. Liquidity crunches can create massive volatility in the market that end in massive moves one direction….....

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