Brewing: Forecasting Trends Case Study

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Forecasting: Kentucky Swamp Brew

Forecasting demand within the brewing industry is dependent upon three basic factors: "trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns" (Elfner n.d.). Trends are defined as gradual shifts in demand that permanently affect the demand for the good or service; cycles are repetitious shifts in demand that manifest themselves in cyclical and predictable patters; and seasonal shifts are changes that occur periodically (Elfner n.d.). For example, a trend for Kentucky Swamp Brew might be an upsurge of interest in craft, small batch brewing. A cycle might be a gradual upsurge of demand with an increase in the health of the economy; a seasonal pattern might be a shift from preferring darker or heavier brews in the winter to lighter brews in the summer.

Trends are likely more difficult to forecast because they can be more unpredictable. Watching industry patterns, using managerial judgment, opinion, past experiences, and instinct are all common qualitative methods used to engage in forecasting (Elfner n.d.).

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For example, customers of Kentucky Swamp Brew might be asked to fill out customer satisfaction cards as a way of gaging which brews were popular and which were not in specific markets. General industry trends could be assessed through market research either obtained by the company or purchased from outside entities. Because KSB is relatively small, it is not uncommon for the leadership to make decisions based upon instinct (such as a conviction in upholding the quality of the brewing process, versus focusing solely upon cost). Past experience often dictates assessment of trends, such noting that a particular flavor of beer did very poorly in the past.

These same qualitative factors may also be brought to bear upon industry assessment of cyclical and seasonal trends. Also, in the case of these trends, it is easier to use quantitative analysis. For example, if demand for higher-priced beers drops during….....

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