Hang Lung to Finalize a Term Paper

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06

All in cost

5,805,600,000

Land price estimate (30%)

1,741,680,000

Gross Unleveraged yield

0.051219512

This implies a much lower land cost, so it is important to calculate the future cash flows independently, rather than basing the land value off of the first lease cash flows. A net present value calculation can then be done, using the company's 6.15% ROE as the unleveraged discount rate. The NPV calculation reveals that the project's net present value over the course of the first nine years is RMB 4.081 billion.

Using a sensitivity analysis wherein the initial assumptions with RMB 315 per square foot per year in the first year and the high-end assumptions about returns in subsequent lease cycles (15% and 27%), the value of the property is just over RMB 6.7 billion.


There is good reason to be optimistic -- Hang Lung would not be at the table if there was not good reason -- but the price tag is currently higher than even the most optimistic projection would imply. At 100% occupancy immediately, the value would only be RMB 7.1 billion. This makes it difficult to justify going any higher on the bid.

The project will run longer than nine years in this location, and the company can incorporate addition years into the NPV….....

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